The season is close to being over, even while a respite looms for this 2-5 team that visits the winless Detroit Lions hosting them on Sunday. But even if the Eagles don’t take care of business, there will be action every week into February.
For every NFL team, the season ends at a different point. For every bettor, it ends at the Super Bowl.
Here then are some interesting, compelling, even fun wagers in Birdland.
Betting on the Eagles Game
The betting line has stayed at that Eagles -3.5 number for most of the week. It is the first time all year that the Eagles have been favored. They opened at -3.5 and Lions bettors hammered the number down to -2.5. Eagles backers then jumped on that and sent it all the way back to -3.5.
Based on those actions, many Eagles and Lions bettors got the number they wanted.
Late in the week, the Lions had slightly more support at DraftKings, 54% at +3.5. And about three-quarters of them had Detroit +155 on the moneyline.
Here is some betting history.
- The Eagles have lost their last four games against a team with a losing record.
- They have also failed to cover seven of their last eight games as a favorite.
- The Lions have literally been “under” dogs for the last five games. They weren’t favored in any of them and every game ended under the total.
Eagles vs Lions Betting Intangibles
The coaches are gamblers too. Even reckless. Eagles fans recall the ill-fated Philly Special attempt on fourth-and-goal from the 1 against the San Francisco 49ers in Week 2. And Nick Sirianni hasn’t been shy about seeking fourth-down conversions instead of punting.
Well, Lions coach Dan Campbell outdid him last week, and thrived. He ordered an onside kick, right after the Lions went ahead of the Los Angeles Rams 7-0. A first-quarter onside kick? So surprising that it worked.
On the ensuing drive, the Lions faked a fourth-down punt and converted. That led to a field goal. The Lions would have beaten most NFL teams last week. Will that carry over?
This game should feature aggressive play-calling on both sides. Neither team has anything to lose.
Eagles vs Lions Prop Bets
The prop board reflects personnel updates. With Miles Sanders being placed on injured reserve, he was removed from the wagering board and Boston Scott was added. Even though Sanders hasn’t scored this season, he’s always attracted betting attention.
Here is a list of updated first-touchdown scorers from DraftKings.
- D’Andre Swift +900
- Kenneth Gainwell +900
- DeVonta Smith +900
- Hurts +1000
- T.J. Hockenson +1000
- Quez Watkins +1400
- Boston Scott +1400
- Jalen Reagor +1600
- To score anytime
- Swift +140
- Gainwell +130
- Smith +130
- Hurts +130
- Hockenson +150
- Watkins +225
- Scott +250
- Reagor +250
Prop overview:
- Swift tallied a touchdown last week and may become a viable part of the offense if Jamaal Williams is limited.
- Reagor scored last week, his first tally since Week 1
- Scott hit paydirt last week and his playing time should be upgraded by the absence of Miles Sanders.
- Watkins…one of these days, they will hit him on a long one.
Eagles vs Lions Parlay Fun
Here is some fun Eagles bettors can have creating their own parlay. This is a five-teamer I cooked up from the DraftKings board.
- Eagles-Lions over 39.5 points
- Cincinnati -1 at the New York Jets
- Buffalo -2.5 vs the Miami Dolphins
- Tampa Bay moneyline to beat the New Orleans Saints
- Kansas City Chiefs moneyline to beat the New York Giants
Hit all five and it’s +364.
Here’s a sample of prop bets on this game from Caesars.
The first score of the game:
- Eagles touchdown +155
- Lions touchdown +240
- Eagles field goal +350
- Lions field goal +375
- Eagles safety +2900
- Lions field goal + 3000
This is three-teamer gamblers can create in the same-game parlay section.
- Hurts over 1 .5 touchdowns
- Jared Goff over 1.5 touchdown passes
- Hurts over 8.5 rushing attempts
Hit all three and it’s +390
You know Eagles fans can’t help but compare Carson Wentz and Jalen Hurts all season long. It’s even part of this website.
Well, how about Wentz AND Hurts, together, in one prop.
- It exists at FanDuel, with Wentz, Hurts, Matthew Stafford and Ryan Tannehill all each throwing for at least 250 passing yards. It pays +410.
- For Wentz lovers in Philadelphia, he’s at least back in their betting hearts.
- Hurts could easily hit this number against the Lions.
- Wentz goes against the Tennessee Titans for the Indianapolis Colts and this could be a high-scoring affair. That will help Tannehill of Tennessee as well.
- Stafford’s Los Angeles Rams visit the Houston Texans.
Key variables in the bet: do you believe Stafford will rely on the run game in the second half with the Rams facing the lowly Texans? And will Tannehill keep feeding the ball to beast-mode Derrick Henry at the expense of his passing yardage?
When a prop of four components goes up like this, it looks like three parts are likely and one is a longshot. The question for every bettor is deciding whether to go with it.
The Birds could push their mark to 3-5 which would be online with sportsbook projections putting them in the seven-win range for 2020-2021.
And if the Eagles don’t win, the whispers about firing Sirianni in mid-season will hit fever pitch.
Programming notes
Check out WhyEaglesWhy, which was posted Thursday. It was hosted this week by Pete Amato, Katie Kohler and myself. Bill Gelman was on assignment at the East Coast Gaming Congress, which brought the nation’s top industry analysts together. Bill nonetheless contributed his Gelman’s Gold.
This episode was extraordinary in the sense that Pete and Katie produced some excellent video about the gaming scene in Las Vegas, especially during football week.
