No Such Thing As A Guaranteed Sports Bet, Right? NJ Sportsbook Tips

Posted on October 14, 2021

It’s time to invoke a guarantee.

Eagles fans can wager themselves into a position to avoid emotional pain when Philadelphia hosts the defending Super Bowl champion Tampa Bay Bucs tonight.

Ahh, the beauty of sports wagering.

Eagles vs Bucs Sports Bet Features

Here’s how to do it. Take all the favorites in NFC East games this weekend in a moneyline parlay at DraftKings.

That starts with Tampa Bay at -280 tonight. The guarantee: Eagles fans either obtain a victory or set up a multi-legged parlay for the weekend. 

Add the Los Angeles Rams at -510 against the New York Giants. The Rams are favored by more than 10 and the Giants are beleaguered. Daniel Jones may play for them, but concussion protocol will dictate that as a late decision.

Take the Kansas City Chiefs at -290 against the leaky-defense Washington Football Team. (Consider adding an “over” bet on the side as Washington has given almost 35 points per game the last three weeks.)

What results? A three-team prop of heavy favorites paying +116.  That’s not bad for teams sporting overwhelming public betting support.

Feel like getting greedy? Add the Dallas Cowboys at -170 when they invade the New England Patriots. That brings the four-teamer to +246.

Feel like getting reverse greedy? Want to see those Cowboys lose? Take the Patriots in the fourth spot and that prop balloons to +445.

Split the difference by taking New England at +3.5 and if the Pats cover, that prop becomes +308.

And there’s one more implication. If the Eagles somehow win and blow up the parlay, a shorter version of the bet can be made again because the other games don’t unfold until Sunday.

What you are betting into: Dallas and the second-tier in the NFC East. Division teams are going to have their moments, but will lose more than they win.

Tweaking the line is something more than what casual bettors do to ease the sting of a potential loss.

This is what big gamblers do, in many different areas. Some play multi-legged parlays across the spectrum of pro and college football, college basketball, pro basketball and hockey. 

They work the odds into something manageable, lay heavy wood on prohibitive favorites and win large amounts of money.

Gambling is about finding an edge and hopefully hitting it hard enough.

And then there’s the hedge. In this case, a gambler who hit the first three legs might add a bet and take the other side of whatever he/she had first taken in the Dallas-New England game. This insures against a losing ticket.

Who says being a large home underdog has to be upsetting?

Johnny Avello, the director of race and sportsbook operations for DraftKings, told that Tampa Bay had been hammered so much by bettors that he expected the line to swing up to seven points. At some sites, it did.

Other considerations for “Iggles” bettors.

Start basic and build out. Look at this one from FanDuel.

Jalen Hurts has a FanDuel prop of 285.5 yards for -113. Good, square, fair price.

Brady’s is -113 for over 300.5. yards.

Bettors are laying a little bit of juice, but not an annoying amount for what look like realistic possibilities.

Wanna go deep? The price changes dramatically for Hurts at 300 yards. Then it becomes +132. That’s a big swing for perhaps one completion.

The same applies for Brady. He skyrockets to +280 if he gets above 350 yards.

The strategy in this approach is to start at what looks like a 50-50 bet and add another wager in case Hurts and Brady go off.

Prop Bets: Staying Organized

They are all over the board, as creative books appeal to the action bettors want. But you can be a good shopper. Props requiring three things to happen pay well for a reason: they are hard. Even two events are difficult. That’s why bettors are well-served if they can hone in on a possible event and then line shop.

  • Hurts is in the middle of a few at Caesars.

If Hurts throws for 299.5 yards and Mike Evans scores for Tampa Bay, that’s +400.

If Hurts throws for 278.5 and Miles Sanders scores, that’s +450. Sanders is overdue and the lack of his impact has been a source of criticism for the Eagles. Kenneth Gainwell is getting the backfield attention, thus this prop is well-priced. But Sanders averaged more than four yards per carry last week. He can also be used out of the backfield. One gets the sense he’s about to break out. Is this the week?

  • Can Brady throw three touchdowns and notch 300 yards?

That’s +200.

He would have cashed that bet going backwards Sunday, when he had five touchdowns and 411 yards. The offense itself had 558.

But this is a new game.

It’s best for gamblers to limit the props to a couple of scenarios because gamblers can be chasing money all over the board.


Zach Ertz may receive a lion share of tight-end duties with Dallas Goedert testing positive for Coronavirus. Goedert may be a game-time decision. Ertz is a quality tight end and may relish this blast-from-the-past scenario to be targeted often in a big game. The Eagles need productivity from this position.

The Eagles have been criticized for not using their running backs.  Perhaps they will be able to use the pass to set up the run instead of the other way around.

Pass on first down, run on second to pick up the first down or create third-and-short. To do that, they may need help stretching the field.

And that help exists. Quez Watkins is becoming less of a secret each week. He’s a deep breakaway threat who can take pressure off the offense.

Watkins had a 77-yard TD in the pre-season, a 91-yard catch and run in NFL Week 2 and a 53-yard play last week that changed the momentum of the game. He only had three targets. He needs about eight. Just having Watkins try a deep route early could soften up the middle of the defense.

He will be a sweet price for an anytime TD threat for a while. Watkins is +310 to notch a score at BetMGM. He’ll be over +2000 to score first.

Good luck tonight, Iggles fans.

And if you want a guarantee, it’s there.

Dave Bontempo Avatar
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Dave Bontempo

Dave Bontempo, a national multi-award-winning writer, and broadcaster, writes extensively on the evolving legalized sports-wagering world. Over the past four decades, he has called fights for all major networks, authored columns for the Associated Press, Atlantic City Press, and iGaming Player. He is in the New Jersey Boxing Hall of Fame, the Atlantic City Boxing Hall of Fame and a Sam Taub Award for broadcast excellence, given by the Boxing Writers Association of America.

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