Betting The Birds Week 11 – Eagles Colts Bets

Posted on November 20, 2022

Take two.

For the second straight week, the Eagles betting line does the gamblers no favor. 

Some Iggles backers got them at -6.5 against the host Indianapolis Colts. Most have to wait for the number to move off of its -7 as of Thursday midday. And if it goes to -7.5, who needs it?

Just like last week, when the Birds were giving a whopping 11 points to the Washington Commanders, bettors have other directions to move in rather than the line.

We outlined DeVonta Smith is due for a big game last week against the Commanders.  Those who jumped on him were paid handsomely, as he was the primary receiving target and scored. So were those who took Jalen Hurts to score first.

Even though the Eagles lost 32-21, gamblers on those angles cashed in.

Eagles Colts Betting At First Glance

The fundamental question before bettors this week is what type of factor Jonathan Taylor becomes. The Colts would love to give him the ball 20-30 times and shorten the game.  Whether that happens affects everything from the moneyline and spread outcome, to the over-under of 44 and the prop bets of other players.

Do the Eagles stack the line, daring Colts quarterback Matt Ryan to beat them deep?

What adjustments will the Eagles make after allowing 51 first-half plays from Washington, the highest total for any team in one half this year?

This is not a great betting game. But there are always opportunities.

Quick Glance at the DraftKings board:

No value in the race to 5,10,15 or 20 points for the Iggles.

Hurts, Miles Sanders, A.J. Brown and Smith to score are all viable. But Brown and Smith showed up on the injury report this week. They both should play, but could be dinged.

The Eagles are -115 to score more than 25.5 points.

The Eagles are +105 to lose a fumble.

The Eagles are not rewarded on the offensive betting line until they score four touchdowns. That would return +170. Not much money for a big ask in a potential ball-control game.

Keep an eye on Parris Campbell and Michael Pittman Jr. for the Colts. It would not be surprising for Colts Ryan to let Taylor pound the rock for most of the drive and hit one of these two for a score. They were each targeted nine times last week.

 Here’s a backdrop to weigh into most bets.

*The Colts play tight games. Most of them are decided by less than one score, especially at home. Their last home game was a one-point nail-biting loss to the Washington Commanders.

*Decide whether Taylor will get  his 20-30 totes. If he does, the Under will look strong. With the Eagles missing Jordan Davis, the Colts will lean on Taylor as much as the Eagles allow it.

*The Colts only give up 110 rushing yards per game,  one of the better league performances. And with Dallas Goedert out, this may force more scrambling from Jalen Hurts.

*The Colts have rediscovered purpose. They performed better for new coach Jeff Saturday than for recently-fired former Eagle Frank Reich. Indy comes in thinking the season was saved just in time. The Colts are 4-5-1.

Here is the sentiment of Johnny Avello, the director of race and sportsbook operations for DraftKings.

“Sometimes in a game like last Monday night, you find out that you’re not really that  good,” Avello told regarding the Eagles. “Take a look at this team now. They have to go on the road and lay 6.5 or 7 points to a team that just comes off an emotional win and needs to stay in it. This is not an easy game for Philadelphia.”

One Bet I Made

Suddenly nothing is a given. I can’t get a big handle inside this game.

 I took the Birds, the New York Giants and Washington Commanders in a three-team moneyline parlay for +262 at DraftKings. Yes, the Giants and Commanders could be due for a letdown, as few saw the Giants at 7-2 or the Commanders beating the Eagles.

And yes, the Giants could be looking past the Detroit Lions and thinking of their Turkey Day matchup against the Dallas Cowboys.

But there’s always risk.

When turnover props go up, I’ll see if I can pick up a good price for Ryan to throw a pick.

I’m taking at least one bet with Hurts to score.

Good luck finding your edge. It only takes one angle, and the right amount, to make a score.

Here’s a guaranteed winner:

Tune in to WhyEaglesWhy, the weekly Eagles show I host with Pete Amato and Bill Gelman.

For once, there is something to complain about. You can relive the train wreck of Monday’s loss to the Commanders in this mini vent-fest.

Pete, Bill and I break down the Birds on both sides of the ball and take a look around the league.

Bill broke the news of Goedert’s injury on the show and has a whopping Gelman’s Gold. We won’t give it away here. Check out the show.

Good luck this week!

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Dave Bontempo

Dave Bontempo, a national multi-award-winning writer, and broadcaster, writes extensively on the evolving legalized sports-wagering world. Over the past four decades, he has called fights for all major networks, authored columns for the Associated Press, Atlantic City Press, and iGaming Player. He is in the New Jersey Boxing Hall of Fame, the Atlantic City Boxing Hall of Fame and a Sam Taub Award for broadcast excellence, given by the Boxing Writers Association of America.

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